Research Articles

Addendum To: There Is A Lot of Value In This Market: Part 1

Chuck Carnevale - Thursday, September 20, 2012

Introduction

This addendum covers each of the 500 constituents of the S&P 500 index.  It is meant to be reviewed and utilized in conjunction with a series of articles we are writing under the general title: There is a Lot of Value in this Market. Here is a link to our first article. Utilizing the portfolio function of the FAST Graphs™ fundamentals analyzer software tool, we have organized the S&P 500 constituents in order of highest estimated total return.

Furthermore, we are providing the following metrics based on fundamentals that provide a quick indication of valuation.  Most notably, we show the current PE ratio followed by the normal 15-year PE ratio which is the PE ratio that the market has historically, on average, applied to each of the stocks listed. Although this is statistically correct, we caution the reviewer that only by reviewing each individual company can an accurate assessment of valuation be made.

Additionally, we caution that the estimated EPS growth rates are based on the consensus of leading analysts reporting to Standard & Poor’s Corp. Capital IQ.  Therefore, estimated calculations of future return are based on assigning a reasonable or sound valuation to future earnings growth based on those estimates.  This may or may not be what actually occurs, however, it at least offers a reasoned point of embarkation.

Ascertaining the Relative Valuation of the S&P 500

One way to get a good feel for how many of the 500 S&P 500 constituents are overvalued versus fairly valued is to review the five-year estimated annual total return column (the last column on the table).  We suggest that any stock that offers an estimated return in excess of the 6% to 9% long-term average of the S&P 500 could be considered fairly valued and/or undervalued at estimated rates above that average.

However, we also caution that this analysis is based on statistical representations that may or may not unfold as presented.  We believe this highlights one of the major dangers and pitfalls of relying on statistics alone.  On the other hand, since this information is offered on a company-by-company basis, we believe it is superior to drawing conclusions based on aggregate averages.

 

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As you said, the results are astounding...probably too astounding for me to give full credence. How likely do you think it is that your microanalysis suffers the same flaws as individual analysts' estimates of earnings, which when aggregated, sometimes/often
yield a much higher estimate of future SP 500 earnings than obtained by the macro guys who take a top-down rather than bottom-up approach. If there are as many good values currently in the S&P 500 as your table suggests (>6-9% Est 5yr Total Return), then folks
who are using other metrics (Shiller CAPE, % of GNP, etc.) are really off base. I'd appreciate your thoughts.
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“One more vote for the value of FAST Graphs™; just started a subscription to Chuck's great service (premium), and am having a ball analyzing so many stocks quickly.”


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"Chuck - Thank you for your well thought out articles. I tend to be a visual type of person so I really appreciate the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ approach."


"Great article, as always! I always look forward to your articles, and am especially eagerly awaiting your next in this series. I find the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ extremely helpful."


“Your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ put all of this in a single artful picture and the accompanying spreadsheets hammer home the point.”


“I use the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ method to evaluate all of my ideas. I recommend it for individual investors, since it helps them focus on data and get past the many emotional arguments.”


“I recently subscribed to the F.A.S.T. Graphs™, and these articles are helping me learn how to better use them. They really do give you a good quick look at the valuations picture. A much needed tool!”


“I also always appreciate the clear-cut information provided through your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ and articles.”


“Thanks, Chuck, for your F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Each of these graphs is worth 1,000 words in describing a company's growth, consistency and valuation. Thanks for sharing your graphs.”


“Thanks, Chuck. Love the F.A.S.T. Graphs™! It makes investing so much more clear.”


“Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™: They are invaluable to me in making decisions about the stocks I own (in addition to what you are saying about doing other research) and the ones I hope to own in the future.”


”I am amazed at the usefulness of your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ and I plan on using them for a long time to come.”


“Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™ will give you a tool to find those well chosen stocks...”


“Thanks for the F.A.S.T. Graphs™, Chuck. They are the best tool I've used.”