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TJX Companies Inc – Stock Research Analysis

FAST Graphs - Monday, August 06, 2012

About TJX (TJX) Companies Inc:  Directly from their website

“The TJX Companies, Inc. is the leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the U.S. and worldwide. The Company operates 1,005 T.J. Maxx, 891 Marshalls, and 393 HomeGoods stores in the United States; 220 Winners, 87 HomeSense, and 12 Marshalls stores in Canada; and 338 T.K. Maxx and 24 HomeSense stores in Europe.

Earnings Determine Market Price:  The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings.  The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line.  On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem.  If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.  

Earnings & Price Correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance

A quick glance at the historical earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ on TJX Companies shows a slight picture of overvaluation based upon the historical earnings growth rate of 18.6% (orange circle) and a current PE of 20.4 (blue circle).  Analysts are forecasting the earnings growth to continue at about 12%, and when you look at the forecasting graph below, the stock appears overvalued, (it’s outside of the value corridor of the five orange lines - based on future growth).

TJX Companies Inc:  Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 1998

 

Performance Table TJX Companies Inc

The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the principles regarding the two components of total return; capital appreciation and dividend income.  Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested. 

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident.  In addition to the 17.5% capital appreciation (green circle), long-term shareholders of TJX Companies Inc, assuming an initial investment of $1,000, would have received an additional $433.68 in dividends (blue highlighting) that increased their total return from 17.5% to 17.8% per annum versus 3.6% (red circle) in the S&P 500.

The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest.  Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as low as it has been since 1998.

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio.  The current price to sales ratio for TJX Companies Inc is 1.41 which is historically high.

 

Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:

1.    The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings

2.    The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 25 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast TJX Companies Inc’s long-term earnings growth at 12% (orange circle).  TJX Companies Inc has low long-term debt at 20% of capital (red circle). TJX Companies Inc is currently trading at a P/E of 20.4, which is above the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18 (orange arrow). If the earnings materialize as forecast, TJX Companies Inc’s True Worth™ valuation would be $64.20 at the end of 2017 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would be a 7.7% annual rate of return from the current price (yellow highlighting).

Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows:  All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in TJX Companies Inc to an equal investment in 10 year Treasury bonds, illustrates that TJX Companies Inc’s expected earnings would be 6.3 (purple circle) times that of the 10 Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

 

Summary & Conclusions

This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported.  Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts.  Although, with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.

Disclosure:  Long TJX at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.

 

 

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    “I appreciate your work, Chuck. As a subscriber to FAST Graphs™, I use the tool to decide on whether to purchase additional shares of what I currently hold or to add a new holding. Your articles help me make full use of the tool and give other readers valuable information, if they take the time to learn. One of the biggest enhancements that I use is the FFO data added for MLPs and REITs.”


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    “Yesterday, I signed up for your F.A.S.T. Graphs™. It's a really amazing, valuable tool for checking over/undervaluation of stocks. Wish I had it years and years ago!!”


    “Love the F.A.S.T. Graphs™: One glance and you know a whole lot.”


    “About Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™: They are invaluable to me in making decisions about the stocks I own (in addition to what you are saying about doing other research) and the ones I hope to own in the future.”


    "Chuck -- Your proprietary F.A.S.T. Graphs™ are a VERY impressive tool!"


    “If there were an Investor Hall of Fame for people who have helped others with their investing, and sharing valuable information, you and your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ would get one of my selections.”


    “I love Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™! Well worth the price of admission for what he gives you.”


    "Chuck - Thank you for your well thought out articles. I tend to be a visual type of person so I really appreciate the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ approach."


    "Great article, as always! I always look forward to your articles, and am especially eagerly awaiting your next in this series. I find the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ extremely helpful."


    “Your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ put all of this in a single artful picture and the accompanying spreadsheets hammer home the point.”


    “I use the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ method to evaluate all of my ideas. I recommend it for individual investors, since it helps them focus on data and get past the many emotional arguments.”


    “I recently subscribed to the F.A.S.T. Graphs™, and these articles are helping me learn how to better use them. They really do give you a good quick look at the valuations picture. A much needed tool!”


    “I also always appreciate the clear-cut information provided through your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ and articles.”


    “Thanks, Chuck, for your F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Each of these graphs is worth 1,000 words in describing a company's growth, consistency and valuation. Thanks for sharing your graphs.”


    “Thanks, Chuck. Love the F.A.S.T. Graphs™! It makes investing so much more clear.”


    “Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™: They are invaluable to me in making decisions about the stocks I own (in addition to what you are saying about doing other research) and the ones I hope to own in the future.”


    ”I am amazed at the usefulness of your F.A.S.T. Graphs™ and I plan on using them for a long time to come.”


    “Chuck's F.A.S.T. Graphs™ will give you a tool to find those well chosen stocks...”


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