Introduction
This addendum covers each of the 500 constituents of the S&P 500 index. It is meant to be reviewed and utilized in conjunction with a series of articles we are writing under the general title: There is a Lot of Value in this Market. Here is a link to our first article. Utilizing the portfolio function of the FAST Graphs™ fundamentals analyzer software tool, we have organized the S&P 500 constituents in order of highest estimated total return.
Furthermore, we are providing the following metrics based on fundamentals that provide a quick indication of valuation. Most notably, we show the current PE ratio followed by the normal 15-year PE ratio which is the PE ratio that the market has historically, on average, applied to each of the stocks listed. Although this is statistically correct, we caution the reviewer that only by reviewing each individual company can an accurate assessment of valuation be made.
Additionally, we caution that the estimated EPS growth rates are based on the consensus of leading analysts reporting to Standard & Poor’s Corp. Capital IQ. Therefore, estimated calculations of future return are based on assigning a reasonable or sound valuation to future earnings growth based on those estimates. This may or may not be what actually occurs, however, it at least offers a reasoned point of embarkation.
Ascertaining the Relative Valuation of the S&P 500
One way to get a good feel for how many of the 500 S&P 500 constituents are overvalued versus fairly valued is to review the five-year estimated annual total return column (the last column on the table). We suggest that any stock that offers an estimated return in excess of the 6% to 9% long-term average of the S&P 500 could be considered fairly valued and/or undervalued at estimated rates above that average.
However, we also caution that this analysis is based on statistical representations that may or may not unfold as presented. We believe this highlights one of the major dangers and pitfalls of relying on statistics alone. On the other hand, since this information is offered on a company-by-company basis, we believe it is superior to drawing conclusions based on aggregate averages.
Comments
yield a much higher estimate of future SP 500 earnings than obtained by the macro guys who take a top-down rather than bottom-up approach. If there are as many good values currently in the S&P 500 as your table suggests (>6-9% Est 5yr Total Return), then folks
who are using other metrics (Shiller CAPE, % of GNP, etc.) are really off base. I'd appreciate your thoughts.
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