Target Corp (TGT):  Large-cap Growth at an Attractive Price

About Target Corp:  Directly from their website

“Minneapolis-based Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) serves guests at 1,763 stores across the United States and at Target.com. The company plans to open its first stores in Canada in 2013. In addition, the company operates a credit card segment that offers branded proprietary credit card products. Since 1946, Target has given 5 percent of its income through community grants and programs; today, that giving equals more than $3 million a week.”

Earnings Determine Market Price:  The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings.  The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line.  On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem.  If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.  

Target Corp:  Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 1998.

Performance Table Target Corp

The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the principles regarding the two components of total return; capital appreciation and dividend income.  Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested. 

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident.  In addition to the 9.3% capital appreciation, long-term shareholders of Target Corp, assuming an initial investment of $100,000, would have received an additional $36,326.38 in dividends that increased their total return from 9.3% to 10% per annum vs. a 3.7% total return in the S&P 500.

The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest.  Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is low.

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio.  The current price to sales ratio for Target Corp is .57, which is historically low to normal.

Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:

1.    The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings

2.    The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 19 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Target Corp’s long-term earnings growth at 12%.  Target Corp has medium long-term debt at 46% of capital. Target Corp is currently trading at a P/E of 14.1, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Target Corp’s True Worth™ valuation would be $114.95 at the end of 2017, which would be a 13.9% annual rate of return from the current price.

Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows:  All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Target Corp to an equal investment in 10 year Treasury bonds, illustrates that Target Corp’s expected earnings would be 8.4 times that of the 10 Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

Summary

This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported.  Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts.  Although, with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.

Disclosure:  No positions at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.